Determinants of house prices in New Zealand

Ge, XJ

Determinants of house prices in New Zealand

Ge, XJ

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, 2009, 15 (1), pp. 90 - 121
Issue Date:: 2009-01-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Ge, XJ https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2252-7829	en_US
dc.date.issued	2009-01-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, 2009, 15 (1), pp. 90 - 121	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	1444-5921	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/11846
dc.description.abstract	Residential house prices in New Zealand (NZ) have experienced substantial increases even as the rate of house transactions began to slow down in 2007. This paper develops house price forecasting models using multiple regression analysis in order to analyse the main determinants of house prices in the New Zealand market. Quarterly time series data for the period from March 1980 to December 2007 were collected from the Department of Statistics and the Reserve Bank New Zealand for the model development. The estimated model suggests that house prices will fall after 2007 and will continue to fall in 2008 and 2009, and that migration plays an important role in determining house price fluctuation, so that a one-percent increase in migration arrivals is associated with approximately a 10 percent change in house prices with a one-year lag. Investment expectations, unemployment, mortgage rate and building permits are also the main determinants of price variations. The model shows that even before the sub-prime crisis hit NZ, the prices had been on the way down. © 2009 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. All rights reserved.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Pacific Rim Property Research Journal	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1080/14445921.2009.11104273	en_US
dc.title	Determinants of house prices in New Zealand	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	1	en_US
utslib.citation.volume	15	en_US
utslib.for	150403 Real Estate and Valuation Services	en_US
utslib.for	12 Built Environment and Design	en_US
utslib.for	14 Economics	en_US
utslib.for	15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Design, Architecture and Building
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Design, Architecture and Building/School of Built Environment
utslib.copyright.status	open_access
pubs.issue	1	en_US
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	15	en_US

Abstract:

Residential house prices in New Zealand (NZ) have experienced substantial increases even as the rate of house transactions began to slow down in 2007. This paper develops house price forecasting models using multiple regression analysis in order to analyse the main determinants of house prices in the New Zealand market. Quarterly time series data for the period from March 1980 to December 2007 were collected from the Department of Statistics and the Reserve Bank New Zealand for the model development. The estimated model suggests that house prices will fall after 2007 and will continue to fall in 2008 and 2009, and that migration plays an important role in determining house price fluctuation, so that a one-percent increase in migration arrivals is associated with approximately a 10 percent change in house prices with a one-year lag. Investment expectations, unemployment, mortgage rate and building permits are also the main determinants of price variations. The model shows that even before the sub-prime crisis hit NZ, the prices had been on the way down. © 2009 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. All rights reserved.

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:

http://hdl.handle.net/10453/11846