The factor of 10 in forensic DNA match probabilities

Gittelson, S; Moretti, TR; Onorato, AJ; Budowle, B; Weir, BS; Buckleton, J

The factor of 10 in forensic DNA match probabilities

Gittelson, S

Moretti, TR Onorato, AJ Budowle, B Weir, BS Buckleton, J

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Forensic Science International: Genetics, 2017, 28 pp. 178 - 187
Issue Date:: 2017-05-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Gittelson, S https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0490-5996	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Moretti, TR	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Onorato, AJ	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Budowle, B	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Weir, BS	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Buckleton, J	en_US
dc.date.available	2017-02-13	en_US
dc.date.issued	2017-05-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Forensic Science International: Genetics, 2017, 28 pp. 178 - 187	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	1872-4973	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/124840
dc.description.abstract	© 2017 An update was performed of the classic experiments that led to the view that profile probability assignments are usually within a factor of 10 of each other. The data used in this study consist of 15 Identifiler loci collected from a wide range of forensic populations. Following Budowle et al. [1], the terms cognate and non-cognate are used. The cognate database is the database from which the profiles are simulated. The profile probability assignment was usually larger in the cognate database. In 44%–65% of the cases, the profile probability for 15 loci in the non-cognate database was within a factor of 10 of the profile probability in the cognate database. This proportion was between 60% and 80% when the FBI and NIST data were used as the non-cognate databases. A second experiment compared the match probability assignment using a generalised database and recommendation 4.2 from NRC II (the 4.2 assignment) with a proxy for the matching proportion developed using subpopulation allele frequencies and the product rule. The findings support that the 4.2 assignment has a large conservative bias. These results are in agreement with previous research results.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Forensic Science International: Genetics	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1016/j.fsigen.2017.02.007	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Legal & Forensic Medicine	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Humans	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Models, Statistical	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Probability	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	DNA Fingerprinting	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Gene Frequency	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Databases, Nucleic Acid	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Continental Population Groups	en_US
dc.title	The factor of 10 in forensic DNA match probabilities	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	28	en_US
utslib.for	0601 Biochemistry and Cell Biology	en_US
utslib.for	0102 Applied Mathematics	en_US
utslib.for	1801 Law	en_US
utslib.for	01 Mathematical Sciences	en_US
utslib.for	06 Biological Sciences	en_US
utslib.for	18 Law and Legal Studies	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science/School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Strength - CFS - Centre for Forensic Science
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	28	en_US

Abstract:

© 2017 An update was performed of the classic experiments that led to the view that profile probability assignments are usually within a factor of 10 of each other. The data used in this study consist of 15 Identifiler loci collected from a wide range of forensic populations. Following Budowle et al. [1], the terms cognate and non-cognate are used. The cognate database is the database from which the profiles are simulated. The profile probability assignment was usually larger in the cognate database. In 44%–65% of the cases, the profile probability for 15 loci in the non-cognate database was within a factor of 10 of the profile probability in the cognate database. This proportion was between 60% and 80% when the FBI and NIST data were used as the non-cognate databases. A second experiment compared the match probability assignment using a generalised database and recommendation 4.2 from NRC II (the 4.2 assignment) with a proxy for the matching proportion developed using subpopulation allele frequencies and the product rule. The findings support that the 4.2 assignment has a large conservative bias. These results are in agreement with previous research results.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/124840