Using elicited choice probabilities in hypothetical elections to study decisions to vote

Delavande, A; Manski, CF

Using elicited choice probabilities in hypothetical elections to study decisions to vote

Delavande, A

Manski, CF

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Electoral Studies, 2015, 38 pp. 28 - 37
Issue Date:: 2015-06-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Delavande, A https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8691-6359	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Manski, CF	en_US
dc.date.issued	2015-06-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Electoral Studies, 2015, 38 pp. 28 - 37	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	0261-3794	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/135754
dc.description.abstract	© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. This paper demonstrates the feasibility and usefulness of survey research asking respondents to report voting probabilities in hypothetical election scenarios. Posing scenarios enriches the data available for studies of voting decisions, as a researcher can pose many more and varied scenarios than the elections that persons actually face. Multiple scenarios were presented to over 4000 participants in the American Life Panel (ALP). Each described a hypothetical presidential election, giving characteristics measuring candidate preference, closeness of the election, and the time cost of voting. Persons were asked the probability that they would vote in this election and were willing and able to respond. We analyzed the data through direct study of the variation of voting probabilities with election characteristics and through estimation of a random utility model of voting. Voting time and election closeness were notable determinants of decisions to vote, but not candidate preference. Most findings were corroborated through estimation of a model fit to ALP data on respondents' actual voting behavior in the 2012 election.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Electoral Studies	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1016/j.electstud.2015.01.006	en_US
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.subject.classification	Political Science & Public Administration	en_US
dc.title	Using elicited choice probabilities in hypothetical elections to study decisions to vote	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	38	en_US
utslib.for	1402 Applied Economics	en_US
utslib.for	1606 Political Science	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Business
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Business/Economics Discipline
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access	*
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	38	en_US

Abstract:

© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. This paper demonstrates the feasibility and usefulness of survey research asking respondents to report voting probabilities in hypothetical election scenarios. Posing scenarios enriches the data available for studies of voting decisions, as a researcher can pose many more and varied scenarios than the elections that persons actually face. Multiple scenarios were presented to over 4000 participants in the American Life Panel (ALP). Each described a hypothetical presidential election, giving characteristics measuring candidate preference, closeness of the election, and the time cost of voting. Persons were asked the probability that they would vote in this election and were willing and able to respond. We analyzed the data through direct study of the variation of voting probabilities with election characteristics and through estimation of a random utility model of voting. Voting time and election closeness were notable determinants of decisions to vote, but not candidate preference. Most findings were corroborated through estimation of a model fit to ALP data on respondents' actual voting behavior in the 2012 election.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/135754