Tracing resilience, social dynamics and behavioral change: a review of agent-based flood risk models

Taberna, A; Filatova, T; Roy, D; Noll, B

Tracing resilience, social dynamics and behavioral change: a review of agent-based flood risk models

Taberna, A Filatova, T

Roy, D Noll, B

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Publisher:: Wageningen University and Research
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling, 2020, 2, pp. 17938-17938
Issue Date:: 2020-12-08

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Taberna, A
dc.contributor.author	Filatova, T https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3546-6930
dc.contributor.author	Roy, D
dc.contributor.author	Noll, B
dc.date.accessioned	2021-03-01T21:01:22Z
dc.date.available	2021-03-01T21:01:22Z
dc.date.issued	2020-12-08
dc.identifier.citation	Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling, 2020, 2, pp. 17938-17938
dc.identifier.issn	2663-3027
dc.identifier.issn	2663-3027
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/146588
dc.description.abstract	<jats:p>Climate change and rapid urbanization exacerbate flood risks worldwide. The recognition of the crucial role that human actors play in altering risks and resilience of flood-prone cities triggers a paradigm shift in climate risks assessments and drives the proliferation of computational models that include societal dynamics. Yet, replacing a representative rational actor dominant in climate policy models with a variety of behaviorally-rich agents that interact, learn, and adapt is not straightforward. Focusing on the costliest climate-exacerbated hazard, flooding, we review computational agent-based models that include behavioral change and societal dynamics. We distinguish between two streams of literature: one stemming from economics & behavioral sciences and another from hydrology. Our findings show that most studies focus on households while representing decisions of other agents (government, insurance, urban developers) simplistically and entirely overlooking firms' choices in the face of risks. The two communities vary in the extent they ground agents' rules in social theories and behavioral data when modeling boundedly-rational decisions. While both aspire to trace feedbacks that agents collectively instigate, they employ different learning and interactions when computing societal dynamics in the face of climate risks. Dynamics of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability components of flood risks driven by incremental adaptation of agents are well represented. We highlight that applying a complex adaptive system perspective to trace the evolution of resilience can lead to a better understanding of transformational adaptation. The methodological advances in computational models with heterogeneous behaviorally-rich adaptive agents are relevant for adaptation to different climate-driven hazards beyond flooding.</jats:p>
dc.language	en
dc.publisher	Wageningen University and Research
dc.relation.ispartof	Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.18174/sesmo.2020a17938
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.title	Tracing resilience, social dynamics and behavioral change: a review of agent-based flood risk models
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	2
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Strength - PERSWADE - Centre on Persuasive Systems for Wise Adaptive Living
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology/School of Information, Systems and Modelling
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
utslib.copyright.status	open_access	*
dc.date.updated	2021-03-01T21:01:15Z
pubs.publication-status	Published online
pubs.volume	2

Abstract:

Climate change and rapid urbanization exacerbate flood risks worldwide. The recognition of the crucial role that human actors play in altering risks and resilience of flood-prone cities triggers a paradigm shift in climate risks assessments and drives the proliferation of computational models that include societal dynamics. Yet, replacing a representative rational actor dominant in climate policy models with a variety of behaviorally-rich agents that interact, learn, and adapt is not straightforward. Focusing on the costliest climate-exacerbated hazard, flooding, we review computational agent-based models that include behavioral change and societal dynamics. We distinguish between two streams of literature: one stemming from economics & behavioral sciences and another from hydrology. Our findings show that most studies focus on households while representing decisions of other agents (government, insurance, urban developers) simplistically and entirely overlooking firms' choices in the face of risks. The two communities vary in the extent they ground agents' rules in social theories and behavioral data when modeling boundedly-rational decisions. While both aspire to trace feedbacks that agents collectively instigate, they employ different learning and interactions when computing societal dynamics in the face of climate risks. Dynamics of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability components of flood risks driven by incremental adaptation of agents are well represented. We highlight that applying a complex adaptive system perspective to trace the evolution of resilience can lead to a better understanding of transformational adaptation. The methodological advances in computational models with heterogeneous behaviorally-rich adaptive agents are relevant for adaptation to different climate-driven hazards beyond flooding.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/146588