Sustainable development pathways of China's wind power industry under uncertainties: Perspective from economic benefits and technical potential

Wang, Y; Wang, D; Shi, X

Sustainable development pathways of China's wind power industry under uncertainties: Perspective from economic benefits and technical potential

Wang, Y Wang, D Shi, X

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Publisher:: ELSEVIER SCI LTD
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Energy Policy, 2023, 182
Issue Date:: 2023-11-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Wang, Y
dc.contributor.author	Wang, D
dc.contributor.author	Shi, X https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9653-7395
dc.date.accessioned	2024-03-18T09:27:29Z
dc.date.available	2024-03-18T09:27:29Z
dc.date.issued	2023-11-01
dc.identifier.citation	Energy Policy, 2023, 182
dc.identifier.issn	0301-4215
dc.identifier.issn	1873-6777
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/176872
dc.description.abstract	Wind power is crucial to China's and even the world's efforts to address climate change. However, the development pathways of China's wind power industry (WPI) remain unclear, hindering the holistic layout of China's wind power development plan. This study constructs a system dynamics model to simulate the economic benefits and technical potential of China's WPI under various uncertainties, thus informing sustainable development pathways. Multi-scenario simulation results show that: 1) Under the BAU scenario, the investment returns of wind power operators are not ideal. It is necessary for China's WPI to further improve the wind power generation efficiency or adopt a more effective market-oriented policy mechanism. 2) Compared with the BAU scenario, the economic benefits and technological potential under the technology changes scenario increase by an average of 120% and 42%, respectively, verifying that technological advancement is the most effective way to drive China's WPI sustainable development. 3) Although macro-environment fluctuations have a negative impact on economic benefits, they can stimulate the improvement of technological potential to a certain extent. The study allows an understanding of China's WPI long-term sustainable development pathways under various uncertainties, thus helping to provide a reference for policy-making institutions.
dc.language	English
dc.publisher	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
dc.relation.ispartof	Energy Policy
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113737
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess
dc.subject.classification	Energy
dc.subject.classification	3304 Urban and regional planning
dc.subject.classification	4407 Policy and administration
dc.subject.classification	4802 Environmental and resources law
dc.title	Sustainable development pathways of China's wind power industry under uncertainties: Perspective from economic benefits and technical potential
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	182
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney/DVC (International)
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney/DVC (International)/Australia-China Relations Institute
utslib.copyright.status	embargoed	*
utslib.copyright.embargo	2025-11-01T00:00:00+1000Z
dc.date.updated	2024-03-18T09:27:28Z
pubs.publication-status	Published
pubs.volume	182

Abstract:

Wind power is crucial to China's and even the world's efforts to address climate change. However, the development pathways of China's wind power industry (WPI) remain unclear, hindering the holistic layout of China's wind power development plan. This study constructs a system dynamics model to simulate the economic benefits and technical potential of China's WPI under various uncertainties, thus informing sustainable development pathways. Multi-scenario simulation results show that: 1) Under the BAU scenario, the investment returns of wind power operators are not ideal. It is necessary for China's WPI to further improve the wind power generation efficiency or adopt a more effective market-oriented policy mechanism. 2) Compared with the BAU scenario, the economic benefits and technological potential under the technology changes scenario increase by an average of 120% and 42%, respectively, verifying that technological advancement is the most effective way to drive China's WPI sustainable development. 3) Although macro-environment fluctuations have a negative impact on economic benefits, they can stimulate the improvement of technological potential to a certain extent. The study allows an understanding of China's WPI long-term sustainable development pathways under various uncertainties, thus helping to provide a reference for policy-making institutions.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/176872