Ambiguous alignment: Australia navigating US–China rivalry in the post-AUKUS era

Laurenceson, J

Ambiguous alignment: Australia navigating US–China rivalry in the post-AUKUS era

Laurenceson, J

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Publisher:: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: China International Strategy Review

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Laurenceson, J https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3991-0082
dc.date.accessioned	2025-03-27T21:55:26Z
dc.date.available	2025-03-27T21:55:26Z
dc.identifier.citation	China International Strategy Review
dc.identifier.issn	2524-5627
dc.identifier.issn	2524-5635
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/186251
dc.description.abstract	<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>As Great Power rivalry in the Asia–Pacific has intensified, Australia has widely come to be seen as a prototypical Balancer. By lending its modest weight in support of its long-time security ally, the US, it seeks to offset the challenges to the regional order posed by China. Developments like the AUKUS partnership struck between Australia, the US and the UK in 2021 are interpreted as confirmation of Australia’s contemporary international alignment. This paper, however, argues that post-AUKUS, Australia has not comprehensively abandoned its hedging strategy. This is reflected in a number of Canberra’s regional assessments and responses that diverge significantly from that of Washington. Similar to Beijing, Canberra believes that the era of US primacy has come to an end and the region is now multipolar. In framing a response, Canberra also broadly shares Beijing’s view that deeper economic integration not only advances domestic and regional prosperity, but also stability and security. Further conditioning Canberra’s response is a recognition that short of extreme scenarios, geopolitical “like-mindedness” counts for little in safeguarding local living standards. For China, Australia’s ongoing ambiguous alignment is a starting point for creative and professional diplomacy to unlock mutually beneficial outcomes. A second Trump administration in Washington is also likely to exacerbate the foreign policy divide between Canberra and Washington.</jats:p>
dc.language	en
dc.publisher	Springer Science and Business Media LLC
dc.relation.ispartof	China International Strategy Review
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1007/s42533-025-00177-w
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.title	Ambiguous alignment: Australia navigating US–China rivalry in the post-AUKUS era
dc.type	Journal Article
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney/DVC (International)
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney/DVC (International)/Australia-China Relations Institute
utslib.copyright.status	open_access	*
dc.rights.license	This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0). To view a copy of this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.date.updated	2025-03-27T21:55:24Z
pubs.publication-status	Published online

Abstract:

Abstract As Great Power rivalry in the Asia–Pacific has intensified, Australia has widely come to be seen as a prototypical Balancer. By lending its modest weight in support of its long-time security ally, the US, it seeks to offset the challenges to the regional order posed by China. Developments like the AUKUS partnership struck between Australia, the US and the UK in 2021 are interpreted as confirmation of Australia’s contemporary international alignment. This paper, however, argues that post-AUKUS, Australia has not comprehensively abandoned its hedging strategy. This is reflected in a number of Canberra’s regional assessments and responses that diverge significantly from that of Washington. Similar to Beijing, Canberra believes that the era of US primacy has come to an end and the region is now multipolar. In framing a response, Canberra also broadly shares Beijing’s view that deeper economic integration not only advances domestic and regional prosperity, but also stability and security. Further conditioning Canberra’s response is a recognition that short of extreme scenarios, geopolitical “like-mindedness” counts for little in safeguarding local living standards. For China, Australia’s ongoing ambiguous alignment is a starting point for creative and professional diplomacy to unlock mutually beneficial outcomes. A second Trump administration in Washington is also likely to exacerbate the foreign policy divide between Canberra and Washington.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/186251