Exploring Agriculture Sector Vulnerability to Climate Change at District Level in Pakistan

Nadeem, Faisal

Exploring Agriculture Sector Vulnerability to Climate Change at District Level in Pakistan

Nadeem, Faisal

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Publication Type:: Thesis
Issue Date:: 2024

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Nadeem, Faisal
dc.date.accessioned	2025-07-01T02:07:59Z
dc.date.available	2025-07-01T02:07:59Z
dc.date.issued	2024
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/188015
dc.description	University of Technology Sydney. Institute for Sustainable Futures.	en_US.UTF-8
dc.description.abstract	Punjab, Pakistan is a region of agricultural significance in South Asia where farm practices and livelihoods are threatened by the effects of climate variability and change. This study used a mixed-methods approach (quantitative and qualitative methodologies) to explore the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change at the district scale in Punjab. Using available secondary data sources, indices of vulnerability and its components (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) were developed to delineate, through geospatial mapping, districts of Punjab most vulnerable to climate change. Semi-structured interviews were then conducted with farmers and government officials in four districts identified as highly vulnerable (Rajanpur, Muzaffargarh, Chakwal, Dera Ghazi Khan) to understand participants’ perceptions of climate change, barriers and enablers of adaptation, and interactions among adaptation actors. Small-scale farmers reported constraints on their capacity to adapt due to limited resources (water governance, knowledge exchange, and market arrangements) and insufficient institutional support for adaptation action. Farmers frequently called for assistance from local government. However, engagement with district-level government officials revealed the local institutional capacity to establish an enabling environment for adaptation to be heavily constrained by inadequate, cross-scale governance arrangements and limited opportunities for input to policy planning. This necessitates a flexible approach to enhance the enabling environment for adaptation across diverse local contexts. Engaging stakeholders in co-design of strategies has the potential to prioritize climate-smart options, and knowledge co-production can encourage mutual learning through knowledge exchange to understand actors’ needs and influence decision-making. The findings indicated that targeted institutional support to empower adaptation by vulnerable small-scale farmers was critical. However, the formulation and delivery of this support required better coordination across levels of government, devolution of responsibility and resources for adaptation to district scale, and incorporation of contextually-relevant (bottom-up) information on farmers’ vulnerability in the formulation of top-down climate change policies and programs.	en_US.UTF-8
dc.format	Thesis (PhD)
dc.language.iso	en_US	en_US.UTF-8
dc.relation	https://opus.lib.uts.edu.au/bitstream/10453/188015/1/thesis.pdf
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights	The author owns the copyright in this thesis including all reproduction and reuse rights for the work. The work may not be altered without the permission of the copyright owner. Attribution is essential when quoting or paraphrasing from this thesis.
dc.rights	© 2024 Faisal Nadeem
dc.rights	au.edu.uts.lib/cph
dc.title	Exploring Agriculture Sector Vulnerability to Climate Change at District Level in Pakistan	en_US.UTF-8
dc.type	Thesis
utslib.copyright.status	open_access	*

Abstract:

Punjab, Pakistan is a region of agricultural significance in South Asia where farm practices and livelihoods are threatened by the effects of climate variability and change. This study used a mixed-methods approach (quantitative and qualitative methodologies) to explore the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change at the district scale in Punjab. Using available secondary data sources, indices of vulnerability and its components (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) were developed to delineate, through geospatial mapping, districts of Punjab most vulnerable to climate change. Semi-structured interviews were then conducted with farmers and government officials in four districts identified as highly vulnerable (Rajanpur, Muzaffargarh, Chakwal, Dera Ghazi Khan) to understand participants’ perceptions of climate change, barriers and enablers of adaptation, and interactions among adaptation actors. Small-scale farmers reported constraints on their capacity to adapt due to limited resources (water governance, knowledge exchange, and market arrangements) and insufficient institutional support for adaptation action. Farmers frequently called for assistance from local government. However, engagement with district-level government officials revealed the local institutional capacity to establish an enabling environment for adaptation to be heavily constrained by inadequate, cross-scale governance arrangements and limited opportunities for input to policy planning. This necessitates a flexible approach to enhance the enabling environment for adaptation across diverse local contexts. Engaging stakeholders in co-design of strategies has the potential to prioritize climate-smart options, and knowledge co-production can encourage mutual learning through knowledge exchange to understand actors’ needs and influence decision-making. The findings indicated that targeted institutional support to empower adaptation by vulnerable small-scale farmers was critical. However, the formulation and delivery of this support required better coordination across levels of government, devolution of responsibility and resources for adaptation to district scale, and incorporation of contextually-relevant (bottom-up) information on farmers’ vulnerability in the formulation of top-down climate change policies and programs.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/188015