Risk assessment of strategies using total time on test transform

Zhao, N; Song, YH; Lu, H

Risk assessment of strategies using total time on test transform

Zhao, N Song, YH Lu, H

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Publication Type:: Conference Proceeding
Citation:: 2006 IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting, PES, 2006
Issue Date:: 2006-12-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Zhao, N	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Song, YH	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Lu, H https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5655-0237	en_US
dc.date.issued	2006-12-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	2006 IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting, PES, 2006	en_US
dc.identifier.isbn	1424404932	en_US
dc.identifier.isbn	9781424404933	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/2305
dc.description.abstract	This paper proposes a new approach to risk assessment of strategies based on the Total Time on Test (TTT) transform techniques. A new concept of risk of loss is introduced, whose value is determined by potential losses and corresponding probabilities of all unfavourable cases. It is closely related to the maximum acceptable (cost) value (MAV) set by a decision maker. How to calculate the value of risk of loss for a given strategy and a MAV is described in depth and a final formula is derived. The values of risk of loss of different strategies can be used for comparisons of these strategies in terms of overall potential losses for the purpose of assisting decision makers in choosing a better strategy. The results of this method can provide specific information about the risk of loss of a strategy. Two examples are used to demonstrate the usage of this method. The scaled TTT plot method and this risk of loss method are applied to the example A and the results of both methods agree with each other. In the example B to which the scaled TTT method is not applicable, the risk of loss method can provide reasonable solutions. This new method can be used for other situations in which the TTT concepts are valid. © 2006 IEEE.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	2006 IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting, PES	en_US
dc.title	Risk assessment of strategies using total time on test transform	en_US
dc.type	Conference Proceeding
utslib.for	010406 Stochastic Analysis and Modelling	en_US
dc.location.activity	Montreal, Quebec, Canada	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology/School of Computer Science
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Strength - CAI - Centre for Artificial Intelligence
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US

Abstract:

This paper proposes a new approach to risk assessment of strategies based on the Total Time on Test (TTT) transform techniques. A new concept of risk of loss is introduced, whose value is determined by potential losses and corresponding probabilities of all unfavourable cases. It is closely related to the maximum acceptable (cost) value (MAV) set by a decision maker. How to calculate the value of risk of loss for a given strategy and a MAV is described in depth and a final formula is derived. The values of risk of loss of different strategies can be used for comparisons of these strategies in terms of overall potential losses for the purpose of assisting decision makers in choosing a better strategy. The results of this method can provide specific information about the risk of loss of a strategy. Two examples are used to demonstrate the usage of this method. The scaled TTT plot method and this risk of loss method are applied to the example A and the results of both methods agree with each other. In the example B to which the scaled TTT method is not applicable, the risk of loss method can provide reasonable solutions. This new method can be used for other situations in which the TTT concepts are valid. © 2006 IEEE.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/2305