End-use forecasting in the context of building adaptive water services

Mukheibir, P; Boyle, TM; Mitchell, CA

End-use forecasting in the context of building adaptive water services

Mukheibir, P

Boyle, TM Mitchell, CA

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Publisher:: E.W. Publications
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Water Utility Journal, 2013, 6 (1), pp. 29 - 39
Issue Date:: 2013-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Mukheibir, P https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7876-1705	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Boyle, TM	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Mitchell, CA https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9842-540X	en_US
dc.date.issued	2013-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Water Utility Journal, 2013, 6 (1), pp. 29 - 39	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	1792-748X	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/27321
dc.description.abstract	Water resource managers are faced with planning for an uncertain future constrained by limited knowledge of how demands will change in future and what supplies will be available to match them. By adopting an adaptive management approach, flexible and robust responses can be developed as new information comes to hand. A transparent approach has been developed that avoids complicated probabilistic approaches and encourages planners to consider investment policies to accommodate a range of potential scenarios. Integrated resource planning (IRP) principles are key to this approach and requires that both supply and demand side options are considered. Whilst much focus has been on the supply side, end user interventions have received less attention as a longer term approach. Restrictions have to date been the fall back option to deal with impending droughts, but this is not likely to be acceptable under reduced trending supplies. By focusing on end-use planning, savings through suppressed customer demand can free up further water thereby delaying the introduction of large expensive supply options. By disaggregating the end uses by residential customers into for example, showers, toilets, baths, washing machines, outdoor use, etc., a richer understanding of where residential water actually gets used and therefore where the potential for demand reduction lie. This paper firstly presents a framework for adaptive planning for urban water supplies and secondly, introduces the notion of end-use modelling and planning as a means to reduce consumption. Real examples from work conducted in Australia will be used to illustrate these approaches.	en_US
dc.publisher	E.W. Publications	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Water Utility Journal	en_US
dc.title	End-use forecasting in the context of building adaptive water services	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	1	en_US
utslib.citation.volume	6	en_US
utslib.for	1205 Urban and Regional Planning	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (Research)
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (Research)/Institute For Sustainable Futures
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Strength - ISF - Institute for Sustainable Futures
utslib.copyright.status	open_access
pubs.consider-herdc	true	en_US
pubs.issue	1	en_US
pubs.volume	6	en_US

Abstract:

Water resource managers are faced with planning for an uncertain future constrained by limited knowledge of how demands will change in future and what supplies will be available to match them. By adopting an adaptive management approach, flexible and robust responses can be developed as new information comes to hand. A transparent approach has been developed that avoids complicated probabilistic approaches and encourages planners to consider investment policies to accommodate a range of potential scenarios. Integrated resource planning (IRP) principles are key to this approach and requires that both supply and demand side options are considered. Whilst much focus has been on the supply side, end user interventions have received less attention as a longer term approach. Restrictions have to date been the fall back option to deal with impending droughts, but this is not likely to be acceptable under reduced trending supplies. By focusing on end-use planning, savings through suppressed customer demand can free up further water thereby delaying the introduction of large expensive supply options. By disaggregating the end uses by residential customers into for example, showers, toilets, baths, washing machines, outdoor use, etc., a richer understanding of where residential water actually gets used and therefore where the potential for demand reduction lie. This paper firstly presents a framework for adaptive planning for urban water supplies and secondly, introduces the notion of end-use modelling and planning as a means to reduce consumption. Real examples from work conducted in Australia will be used to illustrate these approaches.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/27321