Learning from the pandemic: mortality trends and seasonality of deaths in Australia in 2020.

Gregory, G; Zhu, L; Hayen, A; Bell, KJL

Learning from the pandemic: mortality trends and seasonality of deaths in Australia in 2020.

Gregory, G Zhu, L Hayen, A

Bell, KJL

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Publisher:: Oxford University Press
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: International Journal of Epidemiology, 2022, 51, (3), pp. 718-726
Issue Date:: 2022-06-13

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Gregory, G
dc.contributor.author	Zhu, L
dc.contributor.author	Hayen, A https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4046-8030
dc.contributor.author	Bell, KJL
dc.date.accessioned	2022-10-11T04:39:37Z
dc.date.available	2022-02-09
dc.date.available	2022-10-11T04:39:37Z
dc.date.issued	2022-06-13
dc.identifier.citation	International Journal of Epidemiology, 2022, 51, (3), pp. 718-726
dc.identifier.issn	0300-5771
dc.identifier.issn	1464-3685
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/162468
dc.description.abstract	AIM: To assess whether the observed numbers and seasonality of deaths in Australia during 2020 differed from expected trends based on 2015-19 data. METHODS: We used provisional death data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, stratified by state, age, sex and cause of death. We compared 2020 deaths with 2015-19 deaths using interrupted time series adjusted for time trend and seasonality. We measured the following outcomes along with 95% confidence intervals: observed/expected deaths (rate ratio: RR), change in seasonal variation in mortality (amplitude ratio: AR) and change in week of peak seasonal mortality (phase difference: PD). RESULTS: Overall 4% fewer deaths from all causes were registered in Australia than expected in 2020 [RR 0·96 (0·95-0·98)] with reductions across states, ages and sex strata. There were fewer deaths from respiratory illness [RR 0·79 (0·76-0·83)] and dementia [RR 0·95 (0·93-0·98)] but more from diabetes [RR 1·08 (1·04-1·13)]. Seasonal variation was reduced for deaths overall [AR 0·94 (0·92-0·95)], and for deaths due to respiratory illnesses [AR 0·78 (0·74-0·83)], dementia [AR 0.92 (0.89-0.95)] and ischaemic heart disease [0.95 (0.90-0.97)]. CONCLUSIONS: The observed reductions in respiratory and dementia deaths and the reduced seasonality in ischaemic heart disease deaths may reflect reductions in circulating respiratory (non-SARS-CoV-2) pathogens resulting from the public health measures taken in 2020. The observed increase in diabetes deaths is unexplained and merits further study.
dc.format	Print
dc.language	eng
dc.publisher	Oxford University Press
dc.relation.ispartof	International Journal of Epidemiology
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1093/ije/dyac032
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject	0104 Statistics, 1117 Public Health and Health Services
dc.subject.classification	Epidemiology
dc.subject.mesh	Australia
dc.subject.mesh	Cause of Death
dc.subject.mesh	Coronary Artery Disease
dc.subject.mesh	COVID-19
dc.subject.mesh	Dementia
dc.subject.mesh	Humans
dc.subject.mesh	Mortality
dc.subject.mesh	Pandemics
dc.subject.mesh	Australia
dc.subject.mesh	COVID-19
dc.subject.mesh	Cause of Death
dc.subject.mesh	Coronary Artery Disease
dc.subject.mesh	Dementia
dc.subject.mesh	Humans
dc.subject.mesh	Mortality
dc.subject.mesh	Pandemics
dc.subject.mesh	Humans
dc.subject.mesh	Dementia
dc.subject.mesh	Mortality
dc.subject.mesh	Cause of Death
dc.subject.mesh	Australia
dc.subject.mesh	Coronary Artery Disease
dc.subject.mesh	Pandemics
dc.subject.mesh	COVID-19
dc.title	Learning from the pandemic: mortality trends and seasonality of deaths in Australia in 2020.
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	51
utslib.location.activity	England
utslib.for	0104 Statistics
utslib.for	1117 Public Health and Health Services
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Health
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Health/Public Health
utslib.copyright.status	open_access	*
pubs.consider-herdc	false
dc.date.updated	2022-10-11T04:39:35Z
pubs.issue	3
pubs.publication-status	Published
pubs.volume	51
utslib.citation.issue	3

Abstract:

AIM: To assess whether the observed numbers and seasonality of deaths in Australia during 2020 differed from expected trends based on 2015-19 data. METHODS: We used provisional death data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, stratified by state, age, sex and cause of death. We compared 2020 deaths with 2015-19 deaths using interrupted time series adjusted for time trend and seasonality. We measured the following outcomes along with 95% confidence intervals: observed/expected deaths (rate ratio: RR), change in seasonal variation in mortality (amplitude ratio: AR) and change in week of peak seasonal mortality (phase difference: PD). RESULTS: Overall 4% fewer deaths from all causes were registered in Australia than expected in 2020 [RR 0·96 (0·95-0·98)] with reductions across states, ages and sex strata. There were fewer deaths from respiratory illness [RR 0·79 (0·76-0·83)] and dementia [RR 0·95 (0·93-0·98)] but more from diabetes [RR 1·08 (1·04-1·13)]. Seasonal variation was reduced for deaths overall [AR 0·94 (0·92-0·95)], and for deaths due to respiratory illnesses [AR 0·78 (0·74-0·83)], dementia [AR 0.92 (0.89-0.95)] and ischaemic heart disease [0.95 (0.90-0.97)]. CONCLUSIONS: The observed reductions in respiratory and dementia deaths and the reduced seasonality in ischaemic heart disease deaths may reflect reductions in circulating respiratory (non-SARS-CoV-2) pathogens resulting from the public health measures taken in 2020. The observed increase in diabetes deaths is unexplained and merits further study.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/162468