Delphi Method: A democratic dialectical, consensus seeking open systems approach
- Publisher:
- Cabrera Research Lab
- Publication Type:
- Journal Article
- Citation:
- Journal of Systems Thinking, 2023, 3, pp. 1-15
- Issue Date:
- 2023-10-30
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In this chapter the Delphi method, a dialectical and consensus seeking approach, is applied to
management research in ambiguous and uncertain situations. The Delphi method is essentially a process
in which responses from many rounds of questions are sent to a group of leaders or experts. This happens
for several iterations, and the responses are anonymous and also aggregated prior to sharing in each
round. Notably, the leaders/ experts alter their response to the same questions after each round - largely
due to the responses they have seen from the larger group. In sum, this process is believed to eventually
create consensus as to the correct response for each question.
Two case studies are provided to illustrate the use of this method. In addition, [1] has been using a
Delphi approach developed by Alan Davies [2] to research organizations for several years based on Fred
Emery’s open systems theory [3]. Open Systems Theory in its original form had two purposes ([3], p.
623). ‘The first is to promote and create change toward a world that is consciously designed by people,
and for people, living harmoniously within their ecological systems, both physical and social’ and second
‘to develop an internally consistent conceptual framework or social science, within which each
component is operationally defined and hypotheses are testable so that the knowledge required to support
the first purpose is created’. Following open systems theory, consensus seeking approaches have been a
particular concern of systems thinking for some time [3,4], especially with ‘messy problems in
organizations’ [5]. In addition, Checkland [6] incorporated involvement of stakeholders in
decision-making in Soft Systems Methodology.
The chapter consists of: a brief review of the Delphi method and its historical origins; a description of two
case studies in which Delphi has been used as part of a mixed-methods approach in management research;
and some thoughts on the future application of the Delphi method.
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